Game of Thrones

The European quarter of Brussels has always been a bit of a bubble.

A tad insular, an echo chamber, and too often accused of being disconnected from EU citizens. Its occupants freely admit being addicted to acronym-heavy word jumbles and opaque directives no one understands. Machinations and power plays behind the starry blue curtain are nothing new; they have been part of EU folklore since its inception, complicated, of course, by the political egos of 27 member states.

But Brussels’ power plays have never threatened to destabilise the bloc. Until now. And the protagonists at the centre of the storm? The very women Europe has spent the past decade holding up as proof of its commitment to women’s leadership.

Brussels Bubble Bursts: Power & Corruption

There is something decidedly murky about the arrest or detention, or something in between of former EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini (2014–2019), senior EU official Stefano Sannino, and another unnamed Brussels figure this week.

The fact that news of their detentions hit the media before anyone in the Commission appeared to know anything only adds to the fog.

Brussels has always loved a mystery, but this one is edging into thriller territory.

The current crisis is a layered story. It involves a long-running power grab of EU foreign policy by Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission), the frustrated attempt of Kaja Kallas (former Prime Minister of Estonia) to carve out authority as the EU’s new foreign policy chief, and a corruption probe centred on Kallas’ predecessor, Federica Mogherini, and her College of Europe project. Mogherini became its rector after leaving her EU foreign policy role in 2019. The probe has now exploded in the middle of von der Leyen and Kallas’ turf war.

Conspiracy theories circulating the bubble focus on who stands to gain or lose. Was it orchestrated? Is there something underhanded going on? The European Public Prosecutor’s Office insists not. None of those questioned have been charged, with a judicial decision still pending.

Why It Matters

We would all probably have shrugged off or most likely ignored a regular Brussels corruption probe. It would have barely created a ripple in the bloc or internationally.

But it has.

Because those implicated sit at the very top of Europe’s foreign-policy machinery. They are the same people who have spent years negotiating for the bloc, in some of the world’s least comfortable rooms.

Predictably, Washington has wasted no time piling on. US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau retweeted a news report on Mogherini with a pointed jab about her past comments on Cuba being a single-party democracy and Europe’s engagement with the island.

The probe also comes in a week when the Americans appear to be on a war path with Europe. Landau earlier accused European NATO foreign ministers of protecting their own defence industry and warned them not to “bully” US companies out of Europe’s rearmament plans.

Within the bloc, the scandal offers perfect fodder for governments like Hungary’s, which have long argued that Brussels is inherently corrupt and indifferent to the concerns of ordinary citizens.

Backdrop: von der Leyen’s centralisation and Kallas’s frustration

Over two terms, von der Leyen has systematically pulled foreign-policy clout into the Commission presidency, using personnel choices and new structures to keep decisive control over sanctions, Ukraine, and geo-economic files.

Even after Kallas arrived as High Representative with a reputation as one of Europe’s toughest voices on Russia, most strategic decisions and messaging on defence, Ukraine, and Russia have been run through von der Leyen’s team. Kallas has been left fighting for space to be more than a “front-of-house” diplomat, perpetually backfooted. As one Brussels insider described her role: she had become “a glorified spokesperson for von der Leyen.”

This structural imbalance set the stage for open conflict within the institution. A key flashpoint came last autumn when Kallas attempted to bring Martin Selmayr the “Berlaymont Monster” since his time as Chief of Staff to Jean-Claude Juncker into a senior role under her.

Note: For the folks who don’t speak Brussels: Berlaymont is name of the building that houses the European Commission in Brussels

Von der Leyen moved to block the hire, seeing it as an attempt to build a rival power centre inside Brussels. From that point, the bubble’s gossip and headlines described a “Game of Thrones” style struggle for control of EU diplomacy: a president determined to centralise power to herself, and a high representative trying to be independent.

The corruption probe as detonator

Into this institutional standoff has landed the fraud and corruption investigation. It focuses on the EU Diplomatic Academy project run through the College of Europe, financed by an EEAS (the diplomatic service of the European Union) contract. (& Yes, that’s a word jumble worthy of Brussels!)

The contract was allegedly marred by rigged procurement, conflicts of interest, and misuse of EU funds. EU prosecutors say the tender may have been tailored to favour the College, with insiders receiving confidential information and bending rules around the roughly €650,000 one-year training contract.

Crucially, the investigation is led not by politicians but by the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, working with Belgian judicial authorities. They have carried out raids at EEAS premises, the College of Europe, and private homes. That independence matters politically. It should undercut claims that von der Leyen is weaponising prosecutors against the EEAS and Kallas, or that Kallas is orchestrating a purge of predecessors.

Which leaves the question Brussels is now obsessed with: who benefits from this PR catastrophe?

What’s the Latest?

Mogherini has resigned as rector of the College of Europe. She said: “In line with the utmost rigour and fairness with which I have always carried out my duties, I have today decided to resign as rector.” After her release from custody, she stressed her “full confidence in the justice system” and pledged full cooperation.

Sannino has announced he will retire at the end of December. He had been due to retire last year but was instead appointed to lead the Commission’s Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf directorate. He previously served as Secretary-General of the EEAS.

Why Mogherini & Sannino are in the dock

Mogherini sits at the centre of the legal case because she ran the institution that benefited from the contract and the academy it financed. After leaving the High Representative post in 2019, she became rector of the College of Europe and head of the EU Diplomatic Academy programme. Investigators argue that she was directly involved in or responsible for how the project was won and managed. This is why she was detained, questioned, and formally notified of accusations alongside other senior figures.

Sannino’s ties to Mogherini run deep. He was Italy’s EU ambassador when she served as foreign minister in 2014, before she became the EU’s top diplomat. He later became the top civil servant at the EEAS.

This link to the “old” external-action establishment is what has amplified an investigation into a crisis. It suggests the alleged scheme grew out of longstanding networks and procurement habits around EU diplomatic training, not the current protagonists in power.

How Kallas and von der Leyen are positioning themselves

Kallas stresses she is “deeply shocked” at the allegations levelled. But she has reiterated the investigation concerns contracts and decisions taken before she took up the High Representative role. The message is clear: she is cleaning up an inherited mess, not fronting a scandal. This framing safeguards her anti-corruption brand while steering scrutiny toward previous EEAS management and College of Europe practices.

Von der Leyen faces questions about oversight in a Commission she has made more powerful and personal to her own brand. Her team, via ‘sources’, has been telling the media that it is the EEAS, not the Commission, under investigation. They insist criticism of von der Leyen are unfair, especially ahead of a December summit where she hopes to rally EU support for Ukraine.

But critics argue von der Leyen’s drive to centralise foreign-policy instruments under the Commission presidency, including new “strategic” and intelligence-type cells under her control, has not been accompanied with transparent checks and balances. That makes it easier for opponents to connect the dots between her hyper-presidential style and governance failures.

What this turf war and scandal mean for EU foreign policy

Substantively, the EU remains hawkish on Russia. Von der Leyen and Kallas both back long-term support for Ukraine, tough sanctions, and efforts to curb Russian influence. The real damage lies in credibility and coordination.

The turf war weakens the High Representative just as the EU tries to project itself as a “geopolitical” actor, reinforcing the perception that real power lies in the Commission president’s office rather than the formal foreign-policy machinery.

Meanwhile, the scandal feeds anti-EU narratives, from Eurosceptic or Russia-friendly actors who argue that the Brussels “war camp” on Ukraine is mired in self-dealing and opaque networks.

Put two and two together. This scandal-led crisis is less about a change of course on Russia and more about who runs EU foreign policy, whom they represent, how accountable they are, and whether the European Union can sustain a hard-line geopolitical position while its diplomatic core is under legal and political siege.

A Request to our subscribers:

Help us beat the algorithm! Spread the word! Women are more than a check box in world affairs!