Quiet Diplomacy

Spotlight: Rachel Arenas

🎥 Watch: “Rachel Arenas on the Politics of Pragmatism in the South China Sea”

In 2025, China’s disputes with its neighbours like the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and Brunei in the South China Sea over maritime boundaries, forced incursions and interference in oil and gas operations by the Chinese Coast Guard and navy have ramped up.

As Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee of the Philippines, Rachel Arenas blends local legitimacy with national strategy. She translates community-level impacts of maritime disputes into policy and has been driving debate on sovereignty and foreign investment. Her influence is increasingly visible in a landscape dominated by dynasties, where women like Sara Duterte, Imee Marcos, and Yedda Romualdez play pivotal roles.

You can find a full transcript of our interview at the end of this newsletter.

The Context

Despite the sabre rattling framing that we have come to expect when we hear about the the tinderbox that is the South China Sea, this week at Chatham House Singapore’s Former Prime Minister and current Senior Minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, reminded us there are diverging global opinions about China. Those in the regional orbit of the superpower may not look at China the same as Western perspectives tend to.

“Most countries in Asia do not see China as the threat. Some to varying extents do. Japan because uh they have a dispute with China over the Senkaku Islands but also because of the history of the Second World War which still hangs over us. Uh Australia because they are allied to the US and also they see the Chinese actions in the South China Sea as being enimical to their security interest and they’ve said so.Taiwan is a special case. It’s not a country but it has it’s watching very closely what’s happening and concerned about its future. And then you have South Korea for whom the most serious preoccupation would be North Korea but who no doubt look beyond North North Korea and ask where does China stand on this which is something which you can you have to think about. But most other countries do not take such a stance because we see this we see China as a big power in the region present a geographical reality.They are here we do a lot of business with them. We have prospered because they have prospered and we want to prosper more and it started with trade. Now it’s not just trade, it’s also investments, it’s also tourism, people flows and there are bilateral issues. The South China Sea there are claimment states in the south in the ASEAN countries who have come up against China which is also a claimment state. But even while you have the bilateral issues, you do not frame it as an existential thing.” - Lee Hsien Loong at Chatham House

That was the same pragmatism we found talking to Rachel Arenas, Chair of the Philippines House Committee on Foreign Affairs recently, at the Women Political Leaders gathering in Montenegro. This week, The Chief Brief took a closer look at the pulls and pushes of politics in the Philippines to understand who are the power players positioning the country for the future

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Philippines, China & the Women Steering Policy

In the West Philippine Sea, Chinese coast guard ships have escalated their attacks on Filipino fishing vessels, H-6 bombers patrol contested shoals, and Manila has been leaning on joint patrols with the U.S., Japan, and Australia. At first glance, the story could be framed as a simple contest between Beijing and Washington. But the real picture is far more complex: dynastic politics, economic dependencies, and in 2025 the female leadership within the country are seemingly shaping the Philippines’ strategy in ways that matter just as much as the naval maneuvers and sabre rattling.

Domestic Politics: Dynasties in Motion

Philippine politics remains dominated by dynasties, each with a distinct style and strategic advantage. Women at the top are increasingly influential, shaping both domestic policy and foreign alignments.

Marcos Family – Center-right, U.S.-leaning

• Key player: Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr and His sister Senator Imee Marcos who is now partnering with Sara Duterte (see below)

• Strengths: Coalition-building, national branding, institutional leverage

• Current angle: Ferdinand’s estrangement from Imee fractures the dynasty, with Imee aligning with Vice President Sara Duterte, creating friction internally and also the country’s China policy messaging. Son of former president Ferdinand Marcos Sr. and First lady Imelda Marcos.

• Role & context: Imee Marcos is a Senator whose stated foreign policy priorities emphasize maintaining a balanced, multi-aligned approach that avoids forcing the Philippines to choose between the US and China.

Duterte Family – Right-populist, pro-China, regional stronghold

• Key players: Vice President Sara Duterte.

• Strengths: Populist appeal, Mindanao networks, grassroots loyalty

• Role & context: Sara Duterte is a central female figure influencing pro-China rhetoric and regional political mobilization. Daughter of former president Rodrigo Duterte, she is currently in a vicious political war with President Marcos over issues including her father’s arrest and transfer to the Hague.

Her father Rodrigo Duterte, has appealed last week’s decision by the International Criminal Court to continue its case against him and is seeking his release. Earlier this month ICC judges ruled that the court had jurisdiction over Duterte’s case despite his team’s contention that the court did not open a full-fledged investigation into alleged crimes in the Philippines until after the country had withdrawn from the ICC in 2019.

Romualdez Family – Institutional, Western-leaning

• Key player: Yedda Romualdez

• Strengths: Legislative power, coalition influence, dynasty machinery

• Role & context: Yedda Romualdez is married to Martin Romualdez, a first cousin of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (Imelda Marcos, the President’s mother hails from the Romualdez family). Martin Romualdez is a powerful political figure serving as a former Speaker of the Philippine House of Representatives and both husband and wife are key allies of President Marcos Jr.

Arenas Family – Pragmatic, reformist, locally engaged

• Key player: Rachel Arenas

• Strengths: Committee leadership, grassroots legitimacy, issue-driven advocacy

• Role & context: Bridges local realities with national strategy, chairs House Foreign Affairs, and drives debates on sovereignty and foreign investment. She is the daughter of Rose Marie “Baby” Arenas, a noted politician who served as Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives and Rachel’s father, Ramon Arenas, had strong business connections in shipping and related to the influential Lopez clan.

Other dynasties, like the Aquinos and Roxas families, retain influence but lack top-level female representation today.

Maritime Flashpoints: 2025

• Oct 12: Chinese Coast Guard rams BRP Datu Pagbuaya near Thitu Island

• Oct 11: Militia vessel collides with a Philippine fishing boat

• Sep 16: Water cannon attacks on resupply vessels near Scarborough Shoal

• Ongoing: Patrols and joint exercises with U.S., Japan, and Australia; China continues regular military drills

Philippine maritime legislation passed in 2025 defining EEZ zones signalled that sovereignty to the Philippines is non-negotiable, even with repeated provocations by the Chinese.

Economic Ties: Walking the Tightrope

The Philippines walks a delicate line, as do many countries in the ASEAN in their relationships with the U.S. and China. For the Philippines, China provides critical imports and investment, while the U.S. anchors defense and high-value exports.

China-Philippines

• Largest import source (~$52.3B in 2024)

• Third-largest export destination (~$9.4B in 2024)

• $30.8B FDI (2010–2023), including infrastructure, manufacturing zones, and job creation

• Strategic focus: “China+1+1” hub for supply chain diversification

United States-Philippines

• Largest export market (~$19.8B in 2024), particularly electronics and semiconductors

• Security anchor under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty

• Strategic focus: Joint patrols, military exercises, and regional influence

The Philippines’ dual-track policy:

It’s rather simple and echoes other nations in the region: Welcome Chinese investment/capital. At the same time, leverage U.S. defense ties to enforce sovereignty and resist maritime encroachment.

Historical Context

U.S.–Philippines:

• Colonial legacy (1898–1946) shaped political, cultural, and economic systems

• Post-independence alliance formalized in the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty

China–Philippines:

• Centuries of pre-colonial trade and tributary relations

• Formalized diplomatic ties in 1975 (Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Sr. and Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai)

• Ties oscillate between cooperation and tension, especially over Scarborough Shoal and South China Sea sovereignty

Why It Matters

The Philippines is more than a pawn in U.S.–China great power rivalry. Its domestic politics, maritime flashpoints, and economic dependencies all intersect with Dynastic leanings and the women steering policy are increasingly shaping how Manila asserts sovereignty, attracts investment, and manages alliances and defining how the country responds to pressure from Beijing, Washington, and beyond.

🎥 Transcript

Rachel Arenas on the Politics of Pragmatism in the South China Sea

The Chief Brief: The world is going multipolar, and if there was anyone in doubt, we now know it. What is your feeling when you sit on the Foreign Affairs Committee and you are talking to other countries about where Philippines fits into the global picture right now?

Rachel Arenas: I’m proud to say that, this is, we have passed legislation that have, that are historical. That we passed the Maritime Zones Act. Uh, this is about our maritime entitlements and sovereignty. We also passed the Archeologic Sea Lanes, and this is strengthening our Arbitral award in terms of our dispute in the West Philippine Sea.

The Chief Brief: Are you worried about the relations with China today more than you were maybe six, seven months ago? With the US looking more and more inward?

Rachel Arenas: I think that, um, in terms of our relationship we have been really stretching, our diplomacy that we want to settle our disputes peacefully.

We have with us like-minded countries that are supporting us. and I think that is one thing that we are thankful for. In terms of our international engagements, we have seen that, uh, we have garnered more understanding. I cannot say support, but more understanding. And I think that’s a big deal for us.

We, I am worried actually about our fishermen in that side of, of the West Philippines Sea because that is their livelihood and I salute all those that, our coast guard, our military personnel, uniformed and non uniformed that are there risking their lives every day, being away from their families, and yet protecting the sovereignty of the Philippines.

The Chief Brief: Do you think the Philippines needs to have more diplomatic talks with China or rely on the United States as it has historically to do that?

Rachel Arenas: We have actually been continuously having diplomatic talks with China, the Department of Foreign Affairs, and also us, the legislators of the House of Representatives. We are open and we have been actually talking to them and trying to resolve things in a very peaceful way.

The Chief Brief: What are the risks internally, right now that you are facing in terms of the trust of the people within Government?

Rachel Arenas: Well, I think that with, with the leadership of President Ferdinand Marcos one his, priority was passing the maritime zones.

And, he’s brave enough to stand and say that we will not give any inch away of what is ours.

I know that, now that, we have empowered. The vulnerable because of the programs of the government. of course we cannot discount that in every country there are always issues that we have to deal with and we have to be honest to, the people, the millions of people watching us, and we are trying to actually address that.

In terms of trust, of course, there will always be a lot that will always question: What is behind their decision, what is behind this legislation? But you know, in my own way, and those that are with me, my colleagues, we go down to the remotest areas and tell them, this is the programs the government is willing to give you. These are the programs that are funded and these are for you. These are the taxes that you have paid and we’re giving it back to you.

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